Determination of Meteorological Forest Fire Risks in Mediterranean Climate of Turkey

Gülşen KUM, Mehmet Emin SÖNMEZ
3.563 464


Abstract: Located in the Mediterranean climate zone, Turkey is one of the countries where hundreds of forest fires occur every year. Especially the West Taurus is one of the most affected areas. Some fires occur naturally due to the climatic facts. The fires occurring due to negligence or intent also expand their domain largely in the control of climate elements. Therefore, it is of great importance to determine the natural fire risk of the region depending on the climatic factors. In this study, to determine the natural fire risk , the Keetch-Byram Drought Index was used and The Inverse Distance Weighting method was applied to the index results by using the Arc GIS software. Also in our study, the results obtained with the Keetch-Byram Drought Index were compared on a monthly level with the number of fires occurred in 2011 in the same area. Both the accuracy of the Keetch-Byram Drought Index and also distribution of natural fire risk areas in the Western Taurus were determined. According to the findings, during the period from July to November, when drought increases, the values increased based on meteorological conditions. It can be concluded that the risk is particularly high in late summer months (August and September).

Key Words: Keetch-Byram Drought Index, The Western Taurus, Forest Fire, Fire Risk.


Türkiye Akdeniz İkliminde Meteorolojik Orman Yangını Riskinin Belirlenmesi

Özet: Akdeniz iklim kuşağı içinde yer alan Türkiye, her yıl yüzlerce orman yangının meydana geldiği ülkelerden biridir. Özellikle Batı Toroslar yangınlardan en çok etkilenen alanların başındadır. Bu yangınların bir kısmı iklimin etkisiyle doğal yollardan meydana gelmektedir. İhmal ya da kasıtla meydana gelen yangınlar ise büyük ölçüde iklim elamanlarının kontrolünde etki alanlarını genişletmektedir. Dolayısıyla bölgenin iklim faktörüne bağlı doğal yangın risk haritasını belirlemek büyük önem taşımaktadır. Çalışmada doğal yangın riskini belirlemek için Akdeniz iklim kuşağında yangın riskini belirlemede güvenirliliği kanıtlanmış olan Keetch-Byram Kuraklık İndeksi tercih edilmiştir. Bu amaçla çalışma sahası sınırları içinde bulunan 24 meteoroloji istasyonunun günlük verileri Keetch-Byram Kuraklık İndeksi’nde değerlendirilmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlara Arc GIS programında IDW yöntemi uygulanmış ve çalışma sahasının Keetch-Byram Kuraklık İndeksi’ne göre doğal yangın risk haritası oluşturulmuştur. Ayrıca çalışmada Keetch-Byram Kuraklık İndeksi yöntemiyle elde edilen sonuçlar ile çalışma sahasında 2011 yılında meydana gelmiş olan yangın sayıları aylık düzeyde karşılaştırılmıştır. Böylece hem Keetch-Byram Kuraklık indeksinin doğruluğu test edilmiş hem de Batı Toroslar’daki doğal yangın risk alanlarının dağılışı belirlenmiştir. Bulgulara göre, Temmuz’dan Kasım’a kadar olan devrede, kuraklık arttığında meteorolojik koşullara bağlı olarak değerler de artmaktadır. Meteorolojik kökenli riskin özellikle yaz sonu (Ağustos ve Eylül) yükseldiği söylenebilir. 

Anahtar Kelimeler: Keetch-Byram Kuraklık İndeksi, Batı Toroslar, Orman Yangınları, Yangın Riski.

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